How would Trump and Biden handle US nuclear policy upon reelection?

Few issues are as potentially consequential as U.S. nuclear policy. What are Donald Trump and Joe Biden likely to do with respect to deterrence and arms control if reelected? Their previous terms in office suggest important differences—not only on specific nuclear policy issues but also in their overall approach to managing nuclear risk. These differences matter because of the enormous presidential latitude with respect to nuclear decision-making, including presidents’ sole authority to launch nuclear weapons without authorization from other parts of the government.

While in office, Trump was often confrontational in his dealings with other nuclear powers and was openly skeptical of the alliance relationships that depend on U.S. nuclear guarantees. He was actively hostile toward arms control. By contrast, Biden has been relatively cautious in the nuclear domain, prioritizing stability in relationships with other nuclear powers and strengthening American nuclear assurances to allies. While valuing a robust deterrent, Biden also has a long-standing commitment to arms control.

While in office, Trump was often confrontational in his dealings with other nuclear powers and was openly skeptical of the alliance relationships that depend on U.S. nuclear guarantees. He was actively hostile toward arms control. By contrast, Biden has been relatively cautious in the nuclear domain, prioritizing stability in relationships with other nuclear powers and strengthening American nuclear assurances to allies. While valuing a robust deterrent, Biden also has a long-standing commitment to arms control.