Divisions at Home, Divisions Abroad? How Domestic Political Conditions Shape Foreign Perceptions of U.S. Nuclear Credibility

Professor Lauren Sukin will speak at the MIT Security Studies Program's Wednesday Seminar.

How will the intensifying political dysfunction in the United States affect Washington's credibility in the nuclear domain? A rich body of literature examines the degree to which domestic political divisions inhibit effective policymaking. However, this literature has largely siloed foreign policy, viewing it as insulated from many of the troubles of domestic politics. Yet in the nuclear security domain, where the United States must maintain challenging extended deterrence commitments, domestic politics increasingly has destabilizing potential. Drawing on a novel survey experiment fielded in six U.S. allies and partners, the research presented in this seminar  tests how four defining characteristics of U.S. policymaking — political party, partisanship, polarization, and divided government — affect foreign publics' perceptions of U.S. nuclear credibility. This study has important implications for our understanding of how the domestic political environment shapes America's international leadership in nuclear politics.